When you hear someone using the term “alternative line” in relation to basketball, they are referring to an opportunity in which the bettor can wager on a different point spread than originally. May 27, 2020 Alternative point spreads offer more or fewer points to a certain team in exchange for altered odds. If the Saints are -7 against the Buccaneers, for example, a site may offer an alternate spread of -6, so you could get the Saints at -1 or -13.

Generally speaking, when betting on sports, we are all at the mercy of the sportsbooks. Whatever lines or prices they put out, we must abide by them and decide if they are worth betting or not. Fortunately for bettors, there is a way around this and it comes in the form of “alternative lines.” This option allows us to find a line we would like to bet and bet it. Easy, right? The setback to this is that the lines we choose typically come with very high odds, thus draining the bet of any real value.

What is an Alternative Line?

When you hear someone using the term “alternative line” in relation to basketball, they are referring to an opportunity in which the bettor can wager on a different point spread than originally offered at a sportsbook.

The concept of the “alternative line” is similar to that of a teaser in that it gives bettors a more favorable point spread in exchange for less favorable odds. However, an “alternative line”wager is a bet on a single game, where as a teaser must involve multiple options.

An “alternative line” is similar to buying points, but offers bettors a much bigger selection than just your standard half point or full point.

How Do Alternative Lines Work?

The standard “alternative line” is just an extension of the original point spread listed for a particular game. For example, if the Mavericks are four-point favorites against the Timberwolves, some books will offer up an “alternative line” of Dallas -1.5 or Dallas -6.5 If you decided to take the alternative line of -1.5, the price to pay will be much higherthan the standard -110 point spread price. If you decided to lay more points and take the Mavericks -6.5, the price would be much more appealing, perhaps even-money or better. This “alternative line” option is available for both the favorite and underdog, but with the underdog the prices are reversed (you pay a higher price i.e. -150 to get 6.5 points or even-money to get 1.5 points.)

Some books even extend their “alternative lines” as high as 15 points in either direction on both the favorite and underdog. The prices are adjusted accordingly, but if you want to bet the underdog and lay three points, you will be looking at juicy odds.

Are Alternative Lines Worth Betting?

Just like every other betting option available to bettors, “alternative lines” have pros and cons associated with it. “Alternative lines” are not better or worse, but often times they won’t offer much value than the original point spread line. If you asked any successful handicapper to give you a tip on how to be successful, they will tell you to find out the risk and cost of your bet and then compare it to the reward. If the reward outweighs the risk, it’s worth making a play. If not, move along.

The one positive with betting alternative lines is that this option seems to get very little attention. Most squares bet into the standard point spread line which can change the line or juice. With the “alternative lines” this very rarely happens, which means smart bettors have an opportunity to find value.

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I know not everyone is familiar with moneyline betting. Taking a team on the moneyline means you are wagering on a team to win the game outright. The money lines are adjusted based on who is more likely to win the game (based on the point spread).

Let’s use an example. A 4-point favorite in NCAA basketball might be listed at -204 via the money line. This means that you would need to wager $204 to profit $100 on the favorite.

On the flip side, an underdog of 4 points would be listed at +166. This means a wager of $100 on the under would pay you $166 if they won the game outright.

True Money Line: How to use our College Basketball Spread to Moneyline Converter

The chart below plots what the true money line on a game should be based on the posted spread. This was found looking at data on over 20,000 college basketball games and finding out how often the favorite or underdog wins outright at that number (see the table on expected win percentage below for even more detail). What this gives us is what the true money line of a game is given a fair market (e.g. no juice applied by the sportsbook).

Alternative Point Spread Basketball Recruiting

Using this data, you should be able to identify when your book has a money line that isn’t properly priced based on historical results. It is obviously possible for these probabilities to change year to year, but with over 1,500 games sampled at each common line, we are confident that our true money line pricing is accurate. Once you get to less common spreads, of course, you have a smaller sample and the numbers won’t be as reliable, but the main goal here is to identify market inefficiencies on the money line on common point spreads.

Another way to use this to your advantage is when picking upsets in the tournament. You won’t always see the lower seed viewed as the favorite. Sometimes Vegas sees “the underdog” in the committees’ eyes as the team more likely to advance. I definitely use this trick for my own NCAA bracket predictions.

Ncaa Basketball Point Spreads

Spread to Expected Win %

The table below uses historical data to calculate the true win percentage and money line at each spread. The numbers represent pricing based on a fair market, meaning there would be no advantage to the books. Depending on both the spread and the book you use, a books pricing will incorporate an edge to the money line price. For example, we show a -3 point favorite with a true, fair market money line of -159 and a +3 point dog at +159. In a real-lift situation, the pricing will be more like +130 on the dog and -150 on the favorite. In this case we see some advantage to taking a -3 favorite on the money line at -150 with a true money line value at that number listed at -159.

Espn College Basketball Point Spread

The fewer games you have at a line, the less accurate the data will be, so we’ve excluded spreads without at least 100 occurrences in our sample. Also note that the higher the money line, the more of an advantage the book applies. In our first example, the book used a 20 cent difference between the favorite and dog price, at a higher spread like -12.5 you are going to see a much bigger difference, like -1100 on the favorite and +650 on the underdog (a 450 cent difference). Using this example, there is no advantage to taking the money line as the built-in advantage for the book is too great.

I don’t think this data is skewed by teams covering more often at a given line either. This shows just wins and losses. If there are enough games in the sample, it should give you the true winning percentage predicted by the sports books.

More Moneyline Conversion Charts